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LOOKING AHEAD
At this year's World of Concrete Show, Portland Cement Association
Chief Economist Ed Sullivan suggested everyone wear sunglasses for his
updated economic forecast because the future was looking so bright. I
wouldn't go quite that far, but I appreciate the sentiment.
Editor
Mark Kuhar, mkuhar@mining-media.com
330.722.4081
Assistant Editor
Josephine Smith, jsmith@mining-media.com
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Vice President/Editorial Director
Steve Fiscor, sfiscor@mining-media.com
Sullivan said improving underlying economic fundamentals, the existence of large pent-up demand balances, and the diminishment of economic fiscal cliff uncertainty will combine to result in strong growth
rates in 2013 and an increase in cement consumption.
According to the latest forecast from PCA, there will be an 8.1 percent
growth in cement consumption in 2013, significantly higher than the
tepid growth projected in its fall 2012 report. The upward revisions reflect adjustments made in light of the recent fiscal cliff accord, recognition of stronger economic momentum, and markedly more optimistic
assessments regarding residential construction activity.
"Growth in 2013 cement consumption will be largely driven by gains in
residential construction," Sullivan said. "Housing starts should reach
nearly 950,000 units, with single family construction near 700,000
starts during 2013. We see starts hitting the one million mark in 2014
or 2015."
Sullivan did caution, however, that the first quarter of 2013 would actually show declines compared to the same period in 2012. "It is important to point out that this potential decline in first quarter growth rates
does not signal a weakening in market fundamentals, but rather a
hangover from favorable 2012 weather conditions. Stronger gains in cement consumption growth are expected during the second quarter."
The accelerated consumption predicted during the second half of 2013
should carry into the following year. PCA projects an increase of 8.3
percent for 2014.
Total shipments of portland and blended
cement in the United States and Puerto
Rico for January 2012 were about 4.8 million metric tons (Mt), according to preliminary numbers from the U.S. Geological
Survey. That is about the same as December 2012 production, but a slight increase
over the 4.6 Mt reported in January 2012.
We are looking ahead, and hoping to see
that predicted production jump sooner
rather than later.
– Mark S. Kuhar
2
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www.cementamericas.com • Spring 2013 • CEMENT AMERICAS