Cement Americas provides comprehensive coverage of the North and South American cement markets from raw material extraction to delivery and tranportation to end user.
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FEATURE FORECAST 2012 even modest estimates suggest. Further, analysis implies an in- crease in 2012 state highway spending. Combined, these as- sessments reduce the adverse impact of fewer 2012 ARRA dol- lars on overall highway spending next year. PCA assumes a new highway bill will be put in place for fiscal 2014 at existing levels. In the meantime, extensions fill the gap. This repre- sents a significant departure from previous PCA assumptions one year ago, which assumed a 2013 bill at a 20 percent increase over existing levels. This assumption change results in a much less ro- bust recovery in cement consump- tion volumes during the 2012-2015 horizon. Furthermore, even this more conservative assumption may represent the largest policy risk to the forecast given current political leanings. ARRA stimulus spending is wind- ing down. Presently, 83 percent of the dollars have been spent and 71 percent of the projects have been completed. Twenty-five states have spent 90 percent of their funds while 15 of these states have spent more than 95 percent of their funds. An estimated $5.8 bil- lion will be spent in 2011, down 49 percent from the $11.4 billion spend in 2010. The remaining bal- ance of ARRA funds will be re- leased in 2012, or roughly $3.8 billion. Of this balance, PCA ex- pects the spending to be concen- trated in 13 states, accounting for 89 percent of the remaining funds. Moving into 2012, says PCA, the bulk of the remaining stimulus spending will be in California, Texas, Florida, New York, Virginia, Ohio and Georgia, representing 61 percent of the unspent funds. Wyoming (at 99.8 percent of its stimulus dollars spent), Oklahoma (99.4) and South Dakota (99.1) have completed their highway stimulus spending, with 25 addi- HALF U.S. STATES SEE CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT RISE; OTHERS SHED WORKERS IN PAST 12 MONTHS, SAYS AGC Construction employment rose in half the states in America and de- creased in half in October and dur- ing the past year, closely matching the stable national employment picture, according to an analysis by the Associated General Contrac- tors (AGC) of America of Labor De- partment data. The even split between gains and losses reflects the accelerating improvement in apartment and private nonresi- dential construction, offset by a declining public market and stalled single-family sector. "Construction employment gains are likely to remain spotty for months to come," said Ken Simon- son, the association's chief econo- mist. "Local factors, rather than regional or industry trends, seem to dictate whether a state has ris- ing or falling construction employ- ment in a given month." North Dakota ranked first among 24 states and the District of Colum- bia that recorded construction em- ployment gains from October 2010 to October 2011. The state added 19 percent (4,100 jobs). Oklahoma ranked second (8.1 percent; 5,500 jobs), followed by D.C. (4.8 percent; 500 jobs). Texas added the largest number of jobs (17,500; 3.1 percent), closely followed by California (17,100; 3.1 percent). Among the 25 states that shed construction jobs over the past 12 months, Georgia experienced the steepest decline in percentage and total (-9.5 percent; -13,800 jobs). New Mexico was second-worst in percentage terms (-9.2 percent; -4,100 jobs), followed by Wisconsin (-8.6 percent; -8,100 jobs). Florida had the second-highest number of job losses (-11,600; -3.4 percent). Arkansas had no change in con- struction employment over the year. Seasonally adjusted construction employment climbed from Sep- www.cementamericas.com • November/December 2011 • CEMENT AMERICAS tember to October in 25 states plus D.C., led in percentage gains by Delaware (5.5 percent; 1,000 jobs), Vermont (3.8 percent; 500 jobs) and Utah (also 3.8 percent; 2,500 jobs). New York added the largest num- ber of construction jobs for the month (3,400 jobs; 1.1 percent), fol- lowed by Virginia (2,800 jobs; 1.6 percent) and Utah. Of the 23 states that lost construc- tion jobs from September to Octo- ber, Nevada had the largest one-month percentage drop (-4.6 percent; -2,600 jobs), with Alabama next (-3.2 percent; -2,700 jobs), fol- lowed by Michigan (-3.0 percent; -3,900 jobs). Texas lost the largest number of construction jobs for the month (-12,800 jobs; -2.1 percent), followed by Florida (-4,800 jobs; -1.5 percent) and Michigan. South Dakota and Wyoming had no change in monthly construction em- ployment, while Pennsylvania lost a statistically insignificant 100 jobs (less than 0.1 percent). Association officials said the fail- ure of the Congressional "super committee" charged with reaching a deal to cut the U.S. deficit has the potential to undermine construc- tion employment. They noted that the mandatory federal spending reductions that are now scheduled to go in place in the absence of a deal would likely cut needed in- vestments in vital infrastructure projects across the country. "Allowing water, transportation and energy networks to deterio- rate will hurt construction em- ployment and force taxpayers to spend more later, to fix broken in- frastructure," said Stephen E. Sandherr, AGC's chief executive officer. "Neglecting the funda- mental systems needed to sup- port our economy and quality of life is no way to balance the budget or boost employment." 15